Take away that one big play.

Give them credit.

They get paid, too.

Beat ourselves.

Shot ourselves in the foot.

And on and on it goes. Those are just a few of the theories offered by the Broncos for their 31-10 loss Sunday to the Oakland Raiders . Outside the bubble of their Dove Valley complex, though, all those theories are ringing pretty hollow at the moment.

First, it was the Raiders who shoved the Broncos around Sunday. Locally, a few people likely have put their children through college on the proceeds from Raider Hater stuff.

These are the same Raiders, now 3-8, who were last in most of the offensive categories that count, the same Raiders who hadn't scored an offensive touchdown in more than two games before wheeling into Invesco.

The same Raiders who still are a mess and won't be favored in any game they have remaining this season.

Second, the Broncos, as youthful and battered as they might be this season, are perilously close to losing their last life preserver.

You know the one.

"At the end of the day, we look at our division and we're still at the top," Broncos cornerback Dre Bly said. "And in the end, that's all that matters. . . . We have a great chance to do great things."

Perhaps it is all that matters. The Broncos are indeed 6-5 and they do lead the AFC West, as they have from the first week of the season.

And with every fumble, interception, lost opportunity and painful loss this season, the Broncos have clung to the idea that they still lead the division - a division that nobody else seems all that interested in winning, especially San Diego.

That means the Broncos, sitting two games ahead of the 4-7 Chargers with a head-to-head win in hand as well, are still on track for a division title and . . . wait for it . . . a home playoff game.

Of course, it's a home playoff game in a place the Dolphins, Jaguars and Raiders already have visited this season with great success.

What does it all mean?

It means these Broncos, who have waved the still-leading-the-division flag all season, are working toward a January game against an opponent that likely will come from a wild-card list that now includes Indianapolis, Baltimore and New England.

The Colts have the No. 6 passing offense in the league and more than a little recent postseason history with the Broncos. The Ravens have the No. 2 defense and the No. 4 rushing attack in the NFL, certainly a profile that has spelled doom for the Broncos this season.

And the Patriots already have shown what they can do to the Broncos, and that was before Matt Cassel starting chucking around 400-yard games like pennies.

"We need some consistency," wide receiver Brandon Stokley said. "We have to be consistent, a lot more consistent, or we're not going to beat too many good teams."

And with this team, that might have been the only sure thing so far.

INFOBOX 1

Numbers game

Brett Favre, in his first season with the Jets after a short retirement, is 4-2 against the Broncos in his career - all with Green Bay.

Date Com. Att. Yds. TD Int Result

Oct. 10, 1993 20 32 235 1 3 Packers 30-27

Dec. 8, 1996 20 38 280 4 2 Packers 41-6

Jan. 25, 1998 25 42 256 3 1 Broncos 31-24*

Oct. 17, 1999 7 23 120 0 3 Broncos 31-10

Dec. 28, 2003 12 21 116 1 1 Packers 31-3

Oct. 29, 2007 21 27 331 2 0 Packers 19-13, OT

* Super Bowl XXXII in San Diego

INFOBOX 2

Get it done

Here is the scenario: The Titans were undefeated heading into Sunday's game against the New York Jets .

The Tennessee defense was ranked No. 6 overall - No. 10 against the run, No. 6 against the pass.

The Jets then rushed for 192 yards, on 4.9 yards per carry, to go with two Leon Washington touchdowns in a 21-point win. Washington's total included a 61-yard run for a score.

Toss in the fact that Brett Favre threw for two more touchdowns, and the Broncos are staring squarely at a balanced offense this weekend in the Meadowlands.

Also, remember that when Favre was last seen against the Broncos (Oct. 29, 2007), he was tossing a rocket shot to Greg Jennings to end overtime in just one play.

While Favre is the toast of the big city at the moment and Washington gives the Jets some big-play pop, it is Thomas Jones who makes the offense go on this 8-3 team.

And if the Broncos let Jones control the tempo Sunday - as he did against the Titans - they also will be looking squarely at a 6-6 record.

INFOBOX 3

Match game

Broncos C Casey Wiegmann vs. Jets NT Kris Jenkins

Not that the veteran Wiegmann isn't used to it at this point in his career, but he'll be giving away at least 70 pounds to Jenkins.

The Jets traded for Jenkins this past offseason, giving up two draft picks to get him. Some believed New York was getting a disgruntled veteran who consistently battled weight issues.

But the Jets have gotten a big-time presence in the middle of their defense - albeit with several team-mandated weigh-ins during the season - that has freed up Calvin Pace and Shaun Ellis on the outside.

Jenkins commands double teams, and the Broncos likely will have to help Wiegmann from time to time.

Wiegmann is savvy. He understands leverage and how to use it. He also likely has been, with less fanfare than most of the Broncos' offseason additions, the team's best foray into free agency.

INFOBOX 4

Break it down

When things go well for the Broncos, they play clean.

They don't get penalized much, they play with awareness and they don't have to waste timeouts to get themselves in order.

On Sunday, they met the enemy, and at times it was them.

In the second quarter, the Broncos had to use a timeout because they had middle linebacker Spencer Larsen and nickel cornerback Karl Paymah on the field at the same time.

Also in the second quarter, the Broncos offense called a timeout - their third and final one in the first half - after an incomplete pass, which already had stopped the clock.

Late in the game, the Broncos offense also took an illegal-motion penalty when they had 10 men on the field for a play and rookie receiver Eddie Royal tried to run in late and line up wide.

But the snap came as Royal was trying to get lined up.

The Broncos play, especially on offense, with a lot of clubs in the bag. They use plenty of formations, plenty of motion and, in this season of sometimes daily roster turnover, they have used plenty of substitutions.

But on Sunday, they were out of sorts almost from the opening kick. And on a day when Jay Cutler had a difficult time finding the target, when Matt Prater missed two field goals, when receivers dropped passes and the defense didn't stop the Raiders on third down in the second half until JaMarcus Russell took a knee, the little things didn't just mean a lot, they meant everything.

INFOBOX 5

Hot spot

The Broncos hope to have Champ Bailey, who has practiced on a limited basis the past two weeks, back in the secondary Sunday. But no matter who lines up at cornerback, Favre certainly is not afraid to challenge any of them.

If Bailey doesn't play, Brett Favre certainly will look to rookie Josh Bell, who has played in Bailey's left cornerback spot the past two games.

Favre and Dre Bly have gone at it for years, including twice a season in Bly's time in Detroit, and it was Bly who was on Greg Jennings when Favre went for the win in overtime.

Or Favre might go after Bailey. If he plays, he will have missed four games with a groin injury that usually keeps players out longer. If he's on the field, Favre won't shy away as some might. He'll see how the eight-time Pro Bowl selection feels right from the start.